The NBA season has reached its midpoint, prompting the release of the second edition of our Contender Tiers. This time around, we see some notable shifts as teams like the Pistons, Spurs, and Wolves have gained traction, while the Suns and Celtics continue to exceed expectations and the Bucks have struggled significantly.
It’s important to clarify that these tiers do not reflect a straightforward power ranking across the league. Only teams with serious postseason potential are included, and opinions may vary regarding who meets that criterion.
Tier 1: Maintaining Excellence
For a brief moment, the Thunder appeared to hit a rough patch. After a dazzling start of 24-1, they faced a 6-6 stretch that included three losses to the Spurs in a short span. This led to discussions about vulnerabilities in their pursuit of an astronomical 74-win season.
Yet, those conversations fizzled quickly as the Thunder reclaimed their rhythm with a five-game winning streak, defeating formidable teams like the Rockets and Spurs. They currently lead the league in defensive rating and sit fifth in offensive performance. Their point differential of 13.1 not only tops the league but is on track to surpass the historical record they set last year. With Nikola Jokić sidelined, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the clear frontrunner for MVP, and Chet Holmgren is a strong candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, with odds favoring him at -135 on FanDuel.
For those who doubted, it’s clear: the Thunder remain a dominant force. As Ric Flair would say, to remain champions, you must conquer the champions.
Tier 2: The Strong Contenders
- Detroit Pistons
- San Antonio Spurs
- Denver Nuggets
- Minnesota Timberwolves
The Pistons have surged to the second-best record in the NBA, navigating the Eastern Conference with an impressive 21-6 record. Recently, they dismantled the Knicks by 31 points, exposing flaws in a team that has claimed contention status. Detroit boasts the second-best defensive rating and is near the top ten offensively. Cade Cunningham looks poised for another All-NBA selection and currently ranks third in MVP odds behind only SGA and Luka Dončić. Meanwhile, Jalen Duren is improving immensely, and contributions from players like Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, and Caris LeVert have been invaluable. J.B. Bickerstaff is my pick for Coach of the Year.
The Spurs’ three victories over OKC have signaled that they are a formidable force in the present, not just a team for the future. It’s intriguing that rookie sensation Wembanyama has not put up extraordinary stats during these matches yet still has contributed significantly. Following a calf injury, the Spurs managed his return cautiously before reintegrating him into the starting lineup. As scary as it seems, this team ranks in the top 10 for both offense and defense while awaiting a fully functional Wemby.
In Denver, doubts lingered regarding the Nuggets post-Jokić injury. With several starters dealing with injuries, including backup big Jonas Valanciunas, the Nuggets have faced challenges. Yet, Jamal Murray has stepped up tremendously, propelling them through tough games. Murray is enjoying a career year and is expected to make his first All-Star appearance. Their offense has excelled even amid defensive struggles, ranking 23rd, thanks to pivotal contributions from Peyton Watson and Tim Hardaway Jr. When healthy, this team is a serious contender; remember, they pushed OKC to Game 7 last postseason.
The Timberwolves have rebounded from a rocky start, now sitting fourth in the West. Their offense ranks sixth, while their defense holds steady at ninth, culminating in the conference’s third-best point differential. Anthony Edwards is in fine form, but disappointment loomed when the team recently succumbed to a loss despite his 55-point performance. Expect his MVP status to rise as the season continues, and potential midseason trades could further bolster their lineup.
Tier 3: Surprising Developments
Who predicted that midway through the season, the Celtics would remain serious contenders in the Eastern Conference? Unless you’re closely following the team, the answer is likely “not many.” Even the Celtics might be surprised by their current position.
Last season, Jayson Tatum’s injury during the playoffs left a significant gap, and though his return is anticipated, his absence has thrust others into the spotlight. With strategic roster changes meant to cut costs, such as the acquisitions of Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porziņģis, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet, many expected the Celtics to take a step back.
Yet, they continue to excel in the Eastern Conference. Jaylen Brown is performing exceptionally, likely securing him a spot in the MVP conversation, while Derrick White is showcasing defensive prowess that could lead to All-Defense honors. Joe Mazzulla’s deep rotations and ability to manage player roles have been impressive, featuring 11 players contributing regularly. While Bickerstaff deserves recognition for coach of the year, Mazzulla is also making a strong case.
Some might argue the Celtics could warrant a higher tier despite prior skepticism about their playoff viability.
Tier 4: The West’s Contenders
- Houston Rockets
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Phoenix Suns
Recently, the Rockets have faced an unusual challenge with their schedule, playing only 13 of their first 36 games at home. This has strained their record. Compounding this, they recently opted to remain in San Francisco instead of traveling to Sacramento for a game, highlighting the peculiarities of their season. Returning home should benefit them, as they’ve been underwhelming offensively, currently ranking 22nd in offensive rating for January. However, their +6.4 point differential ranks second-best in the West, indicating they have potential.
On the surface, placing the Lakers and Suns in specific tiers feels optimistic. The Lakers, boasting stars like Luka, LeBron James, and a soon-to-return Austin Reaves, possess postseason potential but lack cohesion in their roster composition. Their worrisome 26th defensive rating contrasts sharply with their third-place finish in clutch situation defense, raising concerns about consistency and effort.
Conversely, the Suns have embraced the season with a refreshing outlook. Their performance has surpassed expectations and they could escape the play-in tournament for a top-six seed. With Jalen Green nearing a comeback, Devin Booker in fine form, and multiple valuable role players, they’ve demonstrated their capability. First-year head coach Jordan Ott deserves recognition for his achievements thus far.
Tier 5: Cause for Concern?
Let’s acknowledge what’s going well: The Knicks hold third place in the East and feature the third-highest offensive rating. They are currently favored to win the conference with +300 odds on FanDuel.
However, the downside is that the Knicks have gone 7-10 since capturing the NBA Cup and their latest performances raise eyebrows. Notably, they lost a blowout to the Pistons and suffered defeats to the Kings and the Suns, all while Jalen Brunson deals with an ankle injury. Brunson was previously sidelined by similar issues, raising fears about his fitness.
Karl-Anthony Towns is an All-Star-level performer amid a notably poor shooting season, evidenced by his 52.5 effective field goal percentage, which could set a career low.
The Knicks’ defensive struggles are troubling, particularly given their roster features elite defenders like OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges. Currently, they sit 19th in defensive rating, and their recent slump sees them 27th. This trend poses serious questions about their capacity to compete when they cannot effectively defend against opponents.
Tier 6: Shining Moments
The Cavaliers have struggled to find consistency this season. The Warriors have recently found their footing by winning seven of ten but have been plagued with negative chemistry. There were few expectations for the Raptors and Sixers coming into the season, yet they’ve stood out as pleasant surprises. For the Sixers, keeping Joel Embiid healthy for the playoffs would be a win, especially as Tyrese Maxey emerges as a leading figure.
Tier 7: Unsung Teams
This section covers the remaining teams. The Blazers and Deni Avdija have proven to be an entertaining watch, while the Grizzlies’ situation remains chaotic. The challenges of finding a viable trade for Ja Morant continue amid his fluctuating performances. Although the Clippers have improved with recent wins, skepticism remains about their playoff viability, especially after Kawhi Leonard’s injury had him sidelined.
